European public opinion: united in supporting Ukraine, divided on future of NATO

Abstract

Using public opinion data from ten major European countries one year after Russia invaded, we show strong European solidarity with Ukraine. Domestic audiences are (almost) unanimous in blaming Russia for the war and strongly in favour of standing by Ukraine in its war effort. Only minorities consider Ukraine should be urged to accept territorial losses that could help end the war or that economic sanctions against Russia should be lifted. Even in countries where support for Ukraine is lower (Hungary and Italy), or among more sceptical groups (right-wing populist party supporters and younger populations) we typically find a majority or plurality on Ukraine's side (or at worst we find only a small majority are pro-Russia). European domestic audiences are more divided regarding policy options regarding NATO. In some countries, majorities support increasing NATO’s presence in Eastern Europe and Ukraine’s admission to NATO, while in others majorities oppose these policies. Given the unanimity requirement for the admission of new member states, this division suggests that Ukraine’s bid for NATO membership is unlikely to be approved. We discuss the implications of these findings for Western resolve and the future the European security.